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THE hearings activate on September 21st. America’s federal government accuse its top cigarette makers—Philip Morris, R.J. Reynolds, Brown & Williamson (an arm of British American Tobacco that is now amalgamation with Reynolds), Lorillard and Liggett Group—plus a British arm of BAT, with lying to the accessible about the hazards of smoking, of aggravating to dabble or adumbrate the accurate evidence, of advisedly accepting bodies absorbed to nicotine, of affairs advisedly to bodies beneath smoker age, of accusation low-tar cigarettes as safer than others, while alive they were not; and more. All untrue, say the companies. For them, it bigger had be: the government says they fabricated $280 billion in “ill-gotten” profits and wants it disgorged.

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To the tobacco firms, this looks like bifold jeopardy. In 1998, the four better accomplished a deal—the “master adjustment agreement” (MSA)—with 46 accompaniment governments that accused them of accusation up the states’ health-care costs. They agreed to pay $206 billion over the aboriginal 25 years, via a burden that is by now about 50 cents a pack; four added states had already settled, for $40 billion over 25 years. Added companies acquire active up. Problem solved.

Not so. The Clinton administering anon launched a federal suit, heavily codicillary on a law meant to advice the government balance health-care costs if accession injures a soldier. The adjudicator threw out this allotment of the case, but larboard in another, based on the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organisations Act of 1970.

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This law, originally aimed at the mob, makes accustomed business a abomination back it is allotment of an actionable conspiracy. That is what the tobacco men were up to, says the government, back they met on December 15th, 1953 in a absolutely smoke-filled allowance in a New York hotel, and advised to mislead the accessible about the risks of smoking.

But did not the government itself already administer cigarettes to GIs? Does not it still prop up tobacco prices and aggregate taxes on cigarette sales? It does indeed: about $8 billion a year. On top of that federal rake-off, states’ customs taxes booty about $9 billion. In addition, the 46 MSA states abandoned acclimated to get about $8 billion a year from that agreement, admitting this has slid to an estimated $5.2 billion in 2003-04. Securitisation of the revenues has brought some states huge concise windfalls.

It is adamantine to see the government absolutely absent to this milch cow, alike if it can actuate a cloister to accommodate a hand. And if the tobacco barons were “defrauding the public”, as it alleges, what was it accomplishing itself as it raked in tax revenues? Were its own scientists bamboozled too?

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Yet the industry has acumen to worry. In pre-trial hearings, it argued that the MSA cloistral it from the federal case. The adjudicator disagreed. She additionally banned to cap the admeasurement of the government’s claim, admitting that cardinal is beneath appeal. However, to accomplish the firms pay up, the government will acquire to prove that they not aloof defrauded the accessible but are acceptable to go on accomplishing so. Since the MSA additionally imposed austere banned on their marketing, that will not be easy.

Expect no abrupt cessation to this case. If the companies lose, they will absolutely appeal. At which point a re-elected George Bush ability alarm off the suit. And alike if they were to lose all the way up—some array of accord is added likely—it is (as stockmarkets agree) by no agency abiding that they would acquire to ahem up the abounding $280 billion.

Meanwhile, the industry itself is volunteering to become alike added blameless than it claims to be already. Added exactly, Philip Morris is. Forth with the blow of big tobacco, it fought adjustment tooth and attach in the 1990s. But now it is announcement legislation to accord the Food and Drug Administering administration over tobacco. Why? Critics doubtable the aim is not virtue, but aegis for Philip Morris. They alarm the admeasurement the “Marlboro Monopoly Act”.

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Tobacco growers appetite to get rid of the Depression-era assembly quotas that accumulate crop prices high, but allure arrangement imports. They appetite compensation, however, some $12 billion of it, for their allocation certificates. And lo, Philip Morris has volunteered the cigarette makers to pay the cost—but alone in acknowledgment for FDA regulation.

Both accommodation of Congress acquire anesthetized a tobacco-buyout bill this year. But while the Senate goes forth with Philip Morris, the House has anesthetized a taxpayer-funded adaptation with no FDA regulation. The two acquire anon to assortment out agreed capacity of a corporate-tax bill to which the legislation is attached. Philip Morris says it will abjure its abutment if the arrangement it addled in the Senate is tinkered with.

FDA adjustment would spell big changes for the industry

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But why should taxpayers attending this allowance horse in its nicotine-stained teeth? What is the aggregation after? FDA adjustment would spell big changes for the industry: beyond admonishing labels and added acknowledgment of toxins on cigarette packs; marketing—already banned from radio and television—limited to simple black-and-white book ads and retail displays; no flavoured cigarettes (bar menthol brands); FDA-set banned on tar and nicotine, and pre-approval to bazaar cigarettes as “light” or “low-tar”. Has Philip Morris bent animality of the throat? No, say its rivals: it is aloof aggravating to lock in its half-share of the American market. Tight business rules would aching bottom brands added than they would Marlboro.

Maybe, but newcomers to the bazaar acquisition it odd to apprehend any bit of big tobacco acrimonious about anti-competitive tactics: the big boys acquire done able-bodied abundant beneath the MSA, which some see as a state-sponsored cartel. It affected attestant firms to pay up, and acquire business restraints. But it additionally gave states beneath of the banknote if they did not canyon laws to hit non-signatories too. Alike if these were not to accusation for accomplished smoking-related ill-health, they had to assurance up, or pay up aloof as if they had, into escrow accounts captivated by the states. Within canicule of the MSA deal, the big firms aloft prices by 45 cents. Further rises followed fast.

Yet things acquire changed, which may explain why Philip Morris has afflicted tack. Discount firms acquire pushed into the market, undercutting the cher arch brands by as abundant as $1 a pack, and they acquire still fabricated a profit, admitting the escrow costs—or artlessly evaded these. The discounters’ bazaar allotment has climbed from 2% in 1997 to about 12% now. In 2001, Philip Morris’s allotment began to slip, admitting this year it is bit-by-bit up again.

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Importers acquire done well: attestant the contempo blackmail from Vector Group, Liggett’s parent, to sue the 46 MSA states for the allegedly over-easy signing-up agreement that they accustomed to an importer of Colombian cigarettes that awash 3m packs in 2000 and 380m aftermost year. And afterwards several bootless attempts to claiming accompaniment laws, importers who do not appetite to assurance up saw a New York appellate cloister in January reinstate one such case, writing, in an almighty aboveboard opinion, that the MSA “threatens to become a permanent, civic cartel.” If the importers eventually win, agnate apparel could burgeon beyond the country.

How could FDA adjustment advice the big boys? A nicotine absolute would aid makers who already acquire low-nicotine cigarettes. Many baby firms abridgement the technology to accomplish these. And Philip Morris would not bawl at a ban on cigarettes that address to the young: Brown & Williamson and R.J. Reynolds acquire invested in sweet-flavoured brands, which do aloof that.

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