Strong balance from Morgan Stanley today, with a top-line exhausted and lots of absolute annotation on the alarm about converting their Mitsubishi adopted shares and accepting acceptance in trading businesses, accept MS up about 10% so far today. Every adventure about MS balance seems to be a adventure about how they’re accomplishing against Goldman Sachs, and so we may as able-bodied aloof say now: appealing good.
How’d they do it? Two possibilities appear to mind:
1. Improved applicant ability with acceleration dial.
2. Increased aggressiveness at Morgan Stanley while GS is abbreviation value-at-risk and accusatory about how adamantine it is to adumbrate political events.
We capital to amount out which was added important. So we adapted up a toy blueprint assuming the arrangement of annual trading (FICC and equities) acquirement to boilerplate circadian VaR, arguably a asperous admeasurement of the trading achievement of those businesses. And actuality it is.
We threw in absolute revenues to trading VaR aloof for fun. Some thoughts:
1. MS outperformed on this metric – fabricated added money for its akin of accident – in 2008, with advancing revenues on a abundant lower VaR, but that outperformance cratered during the blast and never came back, at atomic not in trading businesses.
2. But afterwards this division it’s appealing aing afresh – MS fabricated $4bn in trading businesses in 2Q 2011 on a $145mm VaR, against $3.5bn and $101mm for GS – suggesting that MS’s outperformance is apprenticed not aloof by added advancing adventurousness this division but additionally by bazaar allotment assets and/or bigger risk-adjusted returns.
3. Goldman and Morgan Stanley fabricated $390k and $310k, respectively, for every actor dollars of VaR anniversary agenda day aftermost division – or $540k and $420k anniversary trading day.
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